Mad Money or crazy talk?
Filed in: Ed's blog spot
Ever heard of Jim Cramer, the Mad Money financial stock-picking Booyah guru from CNBC and King of Prussia, NJ? I thought so. Do you like him? Maybe, maybe not.
There are loads of "better" TV entertainers out there, (Colbert is king of my TV castle) but Cramer is talk-worthy because he performs his show in the dry world of stocks and shares. And he is particularly talk-worthy because millions of ordinary people put faith in his ability to buy and sell stocks, and practically lay their financial life in his hands. That is Mad!
The first time I saw a clip of the show, the Lightening Round, I held my ears and thought it would be impossible to sit through an hour of that racket. Crazy talk. But I gave it another go, and to be fair, he is very entertaining, (chopping plastic bears' heads off with his Bowie knife); he is slightly anarchic (he took an MA in Communism at Harvard); and is not without wit and humor (he invested in a company offering psychiatric services and justified it as a good move at a time when hedge fund managers are jumping off buildings amidst the credit crunch) . He is also very passionate, as witnessed by his famed "The Feds know nothing rant." and apparently does make people mad money.
He was one of the stars of the 90's calling the crash ahead of time. So he made money off a half billion dollar fund when everyone was losing their shirt. And he runs a charitable trust, can own no shares of his own, and has a TV show at age 63. I guess he has credibility and a track record, no particular axe to grind and knows a lot more than most of us plebs. He also seems to genuinely want us to make mad money. So do you do everything he says?
He does find interesting ways of looking at stocks and shares to buy into. Microtrends, the weather, contrarian views... as well as the safe stuff and best of breed big blue chips.
He does blow the lid on Wall Street practices too. Do you know how the big boys operate towards the end of a quarter for instance? Statistically, 80% of fund managers fail to outperform the market, so towards the end of every quarter they try to compensate for their inadequacies by driving the price of a good stock down - just in time for them to buy more and ride the surge back up. They can then report some better face saving numbers to customers and encourage more investment in their funds.
What wankers these conmen are! Not illegal, but not fair, especially if you are one of the small-time investors suckered into selling your "good" stock because you think the market knows something you don't. But now you know!
Cramer teaches to never act immediately on a stock tip. In fact, one of his mantras is to wait 5 days after he gives advice (time to do research and let knee-jerk market movement settle down).
But it is wierd that another mantra of his is to never act on a stock tip from friends, or anyone! Bottom line, according to Jim, there is almost no positive motivation behind a nod and a wink to buy a certain stock. Either a hustler is trying to create demand for a crap company, or the news is insider info and illegal or... you get the idea. But somehow, the followers of Cramer act on HIS tips!
I was reading a report in a forum by a guy who ran a Mad Money paper portfolio. He lost money. Then he ran a real portfolio and claims he did the opposite of what Cramer said. When Cramer yelled, "Buy, buy, buy." he sold, sold, sold, and vice versa. Out of 153 Cramer calls, he did the opposite and made money 132 times. Make of that what you will.
Cramer nearly always insists that you do your homework before acting. I have done my homework with the tiny stocks I own, and I am glad I didn't follow Cramer's advice with my modest holding in touchpad specialists, Synaptics.
Wednesday, Cramer yelled to not touch the stock. Loads of people who didn't know what they had on their hands, sold their holding. Ouch, people. Thursday night, as predicted by anyone who follows the advances in touchscreens in cellphones and touchpads in laptops, the SYNA boys did better than OK. Then they predicted even more blow-out earnings for the forseeable future. Today SYNA stock hit all-time highs, and is up about 12% from Wednesday's price. Sorry Mr Cramer, the future is touch screens!
Mad Money is fun, it is entertaining and it is educational. Whether it is your road to long term wealth, I dunno. If you have balls of steel and can keep track of all your profits and losses and eTrade fees at tax return time, his 18-month window / twist and turn approach is worth emulating. If not, try a more long term ignore the knee-jerks way.
There are loads of "better" TV entertainers out there, (Colbert is king of my TV castle) but Cramer is talk-worthy because he performs his show in the dry world of stocks and shares. And he is particularly talk-worthy because millions of ordinary people put faith in his ability to buy and sell stocks, and practically lay their financial life in his hands. That is Mad!
The first time I saw a clip of the show, the Lightening Round, I held my ears and thought it would be impossible to sit through an hour of that racket. Crazy talk. But I gave it another go, and to be fair, he is very entertaining, (chopping plastic bears' heads off with his Bowie knife); he is slightly anarchic (he took an MA in Communism at Harvard); and is not without wit and humor (he invested in a company offering psychiatric services and justified it as a good move at a time when hedge fund managers are jumping off buildings amidst the credit crunch) . He is also very passionate, as witnessed by his famed "The Feds know nothing rant." and apparently does make people mad money.
So how good is Cramer?
He was one of the stars of the 90's calling the crash ahead of time. So he made money off a half billion dollar fund when everyone was losing their shirt. And he runs a charitable trust, can own no shares of his own, and has a TV show at age 63. I guess he has credibility and a track record, no particular axe to grind and knows a lot more than most of us plebs. He also seems to genuinely want us to make mad money. So do you do everything he says?
What can Cramer teach us about stock-picking?
He does find interesting ways of looking at stocks and shares to buy into. Microtrends, the weather, contrarian views... as well as the safe stuff and best of breed big blue chips.
He does blow the lid on Wall Street practices too. Do you know how the big boys operate towards the end of a quarter for instance? Statistically, 80% of fund managers fail to outperform the market, so towards the end of every quarter they try to compensate for their inadequacies by driving the price of a good stock down - just in time for them to buy more and ride the surge back up. They can then report some better face saving numbers to customers and encourage more investment in their funds.
What wankers these conmen are! Not illegal, but not fair, especially if you are one of the small-time investors suckered into selling your "good" stock because you think the market knows something you don't. But now you know!
Cramer advises against instant decisions
Cramer teaches to never act immediately on a stock tip. In fact, one of his mantras is to wait 5 days after he gives advice (time to do research and let knee-jerk market movement settle down).
But it is wierd that another mantra of his is to never act on a stock tip from friends, or anyone! Bottom line, according to Jim, there is almost no positive motivation behind a nod and a wink to buy a certain stock. Either a hustler is trying to create demand for a crap company, or the news is insider info and illegal or... you get the idea. But somehow, the followers of Cramer act on HIS tips!
Not everyone rates Cramer!
I was reading a report in a forum by a guy who ran a Mad Money paper portfolio. He lost money. Then he ran a real portfolio and claims he did the opposite of what Cramer said. When Cramer yelled, "Buy, buy, buy." he sold, sold, sold, and vice versa. Out of 153 Cramer calls, he did the opposite and made money 132 times. Make of that what you will.
Do your homework
Cramer nearly always insists that you do your homework before acting. I have done my homework with the tiny stocks I own, and I am glad I didn't follow Cramer's advice with my modest holding in touchpad specialists, Synaptics.
Wednesday, Cramer yelled to not touch the stock. Loads of people who didn't know what they had on their hands, sold their holding. Ouch, people. Thursday night, as predicted by anyone who follows the advances in touchscreens in cellphones and touchpads in laptops, the SYNA boys did better than OK. Then they predicted even more blow-out earnings for the forseeable future. Today SYNA stock hit all-time highs, and is up about 12% from Wednesday's price. Sorry Mr Cramer, the future is touch screens!
Final move
Mad Money is fun, it is entertaining and it is educational. Whether it is your road to long term wealth, I dunno. If you have balls of steel and can keep track of all your profits and losses and eTrade fees at tax return time, his 18-month window / twist and turn approach is worth emulating. If not, try a more long term ignore the knee-jerks way.
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